Secretary of State,
John Kerry recently gave some remarks on Climate Change in Jakarta, Indonesia.
He spoke on the urgency and of the National Security implications of Climate
Change by ranking it up there with terrorism, epidemics, poverty, and the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (Kerry, 2014). Is Climate Change
really this urgent? Does Climate Change have National Security implications?
Mr. Kerry made numerous statements to substantiate these claims. Let us look at
some of these statements one at a time and see if they are accurate, and whether
they support the claims made by Mr. Kerry.
One of the statements regarding
Climate Change made by Mr. Kerry was that “the science is absolutely certain” (Kerry, 2014). Mr. Kerry attempted
to confirm this statement by comparing the science of Climate Change with
several proven scientific laws like that of gravity, thus implying that Climate
Change is a proven law. His verification
for this implication is that “thousands of the world’s leading scientists and
five reports over a long period of time with thousands of scientists contributing
to those reports” … “tell us over and over again that our climate is changing,
that it is happening faster than they ever predicted, ever in recorded history,
…” (Kerry, 2014). Furthermore, Mr.
Kerry states that 97 percent of the scientists agree on this, but is that really
true? Even if it is true, there was a time when a majority of scientists
believed that the Earth was the center of the solar system and the center of
the universe, but that did not make it so. What Mr. Kerry fails to mention is
that thousands of scientists and over 1,350 peer-reviewed reports contradict
the statements and claims he has made and most importantly the science is not
settled (1350+ Peer-Reviewed Papers
Supporting Skeptic Arguments Against ACC/AGW Alarm, 2014). In fact, a survey
of climate scientists was undertaken on 2010 that shows there really is no
clear consensus regarding the statements made by Mr. Kerry (Bray & von Storch, 2010), (Bray, The Scientific Consensus of Climate Change Revisited, 2010).
Another statement that
Mr. Kerry makes is that, “they tell us that we humans are the significant cause”
of global climate change (Kerry, 2014). However, the Nongovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (NIPC) “concludes the human effect is likely to be
small relative to natural variability, and whatever small warming is likely to
occur will produce benefits as well as costs” (Idso, Carter, & Singer, 2011). And the NIPCC is
not the only organization or individual that has come to this conclusion. In
fact, “Mike Hulme (2009), a professor of climate change in the School of
Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia and a contributor to
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2009 a book
that contained admissions of uncertainty.” and Hulme also stated “Uncertainty
pervades scientific predictions about the future performance of global and
regional climates. And uncertainties multiply when considering all the
consequences that might follow from such changes in climate” (Idso, Carter, & Singer, 2011).
Mr. Kerry then goes on
to say that “If you ranked all the years in recorded history by average
temperature, you’d see that 8 of the 10 hottest years have all happened within
the last 10 years. Think about it this way: all 10 of the hottest years on
record have actually happened since Google went online in 1998” (Kerry, 2014). Is that true? Phil
Jones, the director of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of
East Anglia (UEA), was asked in an interview with the BBC, "Do you agree
that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of
global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical?" Mr.
Jones stated, "…the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not
statistically significantly different from each other." Furthermore, he
was also asked in the same interview, "Do you agree that from 1995 to the
present there has been no statistically-significant global warming?" Mr.
Jones stated, "Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the
period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not
significant at the 95% significance level" (Harrabin,
2010).
Mr. Kerry also states that
“the earth is getting hotter at such an alarming speed, glaciers in places like
the Arctic are melting into the sea faster than we expected. And the sea is
rising – slowly, but rising – and will rise to dangerous levels” (Kerry, 2014). Is that true? The
first part of this statement has been shown to be untrue in the paragraph above
so let’s focus on the comment about glaciers melting. It has been shown that “Antarctic
September sea ice has been increasing at 1.1 percent per decade relative to the
1981 to 2010 average” (Watts, 2013) and this year's
maximum wintertime extent of Antarctic sea ice was the largest on record (Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Maximum Extent, 2013). Furthermore, the Arctic
ice cap grew by 29% in 2013 (Rose, 2013) and this same growing
trend has been seen in the Himalayas (Hoffman, 2012), (Carrington,
2012).
Another statement that
Mr. Kerry made is that there is a thin layer of gas in our atmosphere that “for
millions of years – literally millions of years – we know that layer has acted
like a thermal blanket for the planet – trapping the sun’s heat and warming the
surface of the Earth to the ideal, life-sustaining temperature. Average
temperature of the Earth has been about 57 degrees Fahrenheit, which keeps life
going” and he calls this “the greenhouse effect because it works exactly like a
greenhouse“ (Kerry, 2014). Is that true? He
goes on further to state that “This is what’s causing climate change” (Kerry, 2014). Is that true? This
has been proven to be patently false. While CO2 levels have climbed
in recent years (Tans & Keeling, 2014) the average temperature
has not climbed as evidenced from Mr. Jones’ statements above (Harrabin, 2010).
Mr. Kerry states that “Climate
change also means water shortages. And if you have these enormous water
shortages, then you have a change in the weather – because of the weather
patterns, you’re going to wind up with droughts, the lack of water. And the
droughts can become longer and more intense. In fact, this isn’t something
around the corner – this is happening now (Kerry, 2014). Is that true? Mr.
Kerry also states that, “scientists further predict that climate change also
means longer, more unpredictable monsoon seasons and more extreme weather
events. Now, I’ll tell you, I can’t tell you – no weatherman on TV or anybody
is going to be able to look at you and tell you – that one particular storm was
absolutely the result of climate change. But scientists do predict that many
more of these disastrous storms will occur if we continue down the current path (Kerry, 2014). Is that true?
First, how can Mr.
Kerry claim that there will be water shortages in one part of his speech and
then claim that there will be longer monsoon rain seasons? These two statements
contradict one another. Secondly, if one reviews the scientific literature that
is available, it is clear that droughts are not becoming more prevalent or more
severe and that storm activity has been on a decline (Idso, Carter, & Singer, 2011).
He calls those who
disagree, a “tiny minority of shoddy scientists and science” (Kerry, 2014).
Is this accurate or is this an attempt to marginalize those who are in disagreement?
He goes on to further marginalize those who disagree by saying “this is really
not a normal kind of difference of opinion between people” and “those who
refuse to believe it are simply burying their heads in the sand.” (Kerry, 2014). As cited above
there are numerous scientists who are peer-reviewed and well respected in their
fields who disagree with the Alarmist statements that have been made by Mr.
Kerry and others (1350+ Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skeptic
Arguments Against ACC/AGW Alarm, 2014). Mr. Kerry’s
statements are inaccurate at best and slanderous at their worst.
The bottom line is that
the science of Climate Change is neither decided nor is there a consensus, not
that a consensus really means all that much. Do we need to push governments,
businesses, and individuals to spend billions on possibly needless policy and grandiose
changes to our infrastructure and how we live? Perhaps it would be better to
look at the topic of Climate Change with politically unbiased eyes and the
scientific rigor that it deserves.
1350+ Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skeptic
Arguments Against ACC/AGW Alarm.
(2014, February 12). Retrieved March 31, 2014, from Popular Technology.Net:
http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html
Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Maximum Extent. (2013, October 1). Retrieved March 31, 2014, from
Earth Observatory: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82160
Borenstein, S. (2014, March 24 ). Climate Report:
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http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/climate-report-warming-big-risk-people-n60611
Bray, D. (2010). The Scientific Consensus of
Climate Change Revisited. Retrieved March 31, 2014, from Academia.edu:
http://www.academia.edu/3077313/The_Scientific_Consensus_of_Climate_Change_Revisited
Bray, D., & von Storch, H. (2010, September 15). CliSci2008:
A Survey of the Perspectives of Climate Scientists Concerning Climate.
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http://www.hzg.de/imperia/md/content/gkss/zentrale_einrichtungen/bibliothek/berichte/gkss_berichte_2010/gkss_2010_9_.pdf
Carrington, D. (2012, April 15). Karakoram glaciers
have grown over last decade, new research shows. Retrieved March 31, 2014,
from The Guardian:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/apr/15/karakoram-glaciers-grown-research
Harrabin, R. (2010, February 13). Q&A:
Professor Phil Jones. Retrieved March 31, 2014, from BBC News: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm
Hoffman, D. L. (2012, March 9). NASA Satellite
Debunks Melting Glacier Myth. Retrieved March 31, 2014, from The Resilient
Earth:
http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/nasa-satellite-debunks-melting-glacier-myth
Idso, C. D., Carter, R. M., & Singer, S. F.
(2011). Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report of the
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http://nipccreport.org/reports/2011/pdf/2011NIPCCinterimreport.pdf
Kerry, J. (2014, February 16). Remarks on Climate
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Tans, P., & Keeling, R. (2014). Trends in
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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
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Watts, A. (2013, October 22). NASA Announces New
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