Saturday, August 31, 2013

Libya Attack: Spontaneous or Planned?

One of the most prevalent stories this past week, and mostly likely for several weeks to come, is that concerning the attack on the American consulate (embassy) in Libya.
Key points:
1. Libyan Deputy Interior Minister Wanis al-Sharif has told reporters he believes militants used an anti-US protest as cover for the attack, and may have had help from inside the country's security services.
2. American and European officials said that while many details about the attack remained unclear, the assailants seemed organized, well trained and heavily armed, and they appeared to have at least some level of advance planning.
...a Libyan politician who had breakfast with Mr. Stevens at the mission the morning before he was killed described security, mainly four video cameras and as few as four Libyan guards, as sorely inadequate for an American ambassador in such a tumultuous environment.
Col. Wolfgang Pusztai, who until early August was Austria’s defense attaché to Libya and visited the country every month, said in an e-mail that he believed the attack was “deliberately planned and executed” by about a core group of 30 to 40 assailants who were “well trained and organized.”
3.  UN Ambassador Susan Rice said Sunday she doubts the deadly attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, Libya, was a pre-planned Al Qaeda operation that could have been detected.
Speaking on "Fox News Sunday,” Ambassador Rice asserted that the US had no “actionable intelligence” that might have alerted officials to the attack in Benghazi,...
4. Sources tracking militant Islamist groups in eastern Libya say that a pro-al Qaeda group responsible for a previous armed assault on the consulate – called the Imprisoned Omar Abdul Rahman Brigades - is a chief suspect in the attack.
The sources also note that the attack immediately followed a call from al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri for revenge for the June death of Abu Yahya al-Libi, a senior Libyan member of the terror group.
Noman Benotman,  president of the counter-extremist group Quilliam Foundation in London, told CNN, "An attack like this would likely have required preparation. This would not seem to be merely a protest which escalated."
"According to our sources, the attack was the work of roughly 20 militants, prepared for a military assault; it is rare that an RPG7 is present at a peaceful protest," Benotman said.
The top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee said Thursday that the strike "has all the hallmarks of an al Qaeda operation or an al Qaeda affiliate."
"One of the things that we've noticed over the last six or seven months is that al Qaeda in the Maghreb, northern Africa, have said they're really eager to strike northeastern targets. We've seen cells in Libya and Egypt starting to develop," U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Michigan, told CNN's "Starting Point."
Libyan Deputy Interior Minister Wanis al-Sharif said Wednesday that a group of heavily armed militants "infiltrated the march to start chaos.” Libya’s government blamed remnants of the Gadhafi regime, which was overthrown last year.
Wednesday night, U.S. officials told CNN's Suzanne Kelly that there were no actionable intelligence that this attack was being planned. But there appear to be some conflicting reports on the matter. Earlier Wednesday, sources said they believed the attack was planned, and that the protest of an obscure film that mocks Muslim faith was used as a diversion.
State Department Under Secretary Patrick Kennedy, during a briefing to Capitol Hill staff, offered his opinion that the attack was planned because of the extensive nature of the attack and the "proliferation" of small and medium weapons.
5. Sharef, who was in charge of the Interior Ministry’s security forces in Benghazi during the attack, has been critical of the security level at the consulate and of the Americans for keeping U.S. personnel in Benghazi. A series of attacks in the city over the last few months have targeted Westerners, in particular the British ambassador. In addition, Sharef has been the Libyan official most eager to suggest that the assault on the consulate involved considerable forward planning and was timed to coincide with 9/11, providing him with a partial defense for why government security forces were incapable of repelling the attack...
Feeling like he was “one of the rebels” may have lulled Stevens into a false sense of safety. A British security expert who advises foreign companies working in Benghazi says he was surprised that Stevens spent two days in the city. “The British ambassador was nearly killed a few weeks ago and the U.N. envoy Ian Martin had a grenade hurled at his car,” the security expert said. “Most high-profile diplomats spend as little time as possible in Benghazi.”
“I wouldn’t be surprised if they knew Chris was there and I wouldn’t discount some kind of al Qaeda involvement,” said Mazin Ramadan, a former Libyan government adviser and a friend of the slain ambassador. “We know there were some al Qaeda people before in Derna. And clearly there has been thinking and planning for attacks. We have had a series of them in Benghazi.”
U.S. officials have other questions. Why did the consulate have no U.S. Marine security present, unlike the Tripoli embassy? And why was the consulate, housed in a villa in an upscale district of the eastern Libyan city, not in compliance with State Department security rules for foreign missions? When the dust clears, State Department officials are likely to face the same questions from congressional panels citing, no doubt, a 2009 General Accounting Office report warning of a lack of strategic planning on diplomatic security.
So what does all this mean? As with any incident of this nature and magnitude, information flow can be sporadic, incomplete, inconsistent, and highly speculative. A thorough investigation is warranted and necessary to expose the truth.

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